gms | German Medical Science

Ground-level ozone and particulate matter pollutants are associated with a variety of health issues as well as increased mortality. For this reason, federal environmental agencies in Mexico regulate pollutant levels. In addition, Mexico City de_nes pollution emergencies using thresholds that rely on regional maxima for ozone and for particulate matter with diameter less than 10 micrometers (PM10). To predict local pollution emergencies and to assess compliance to Mexican ambient air quality standards, we analyze hourly ozone and PM10 measurements from 24 stations across Mexico City during all of 2017 using a bivariate spatiotemporal model.

With this model, we predict future pollutant levels using current weather conditions and recent pollutant concentrations. Employing hourly pollutant projections, we predict regional maxima needed to estimate the probability of future pollution emergencies. We discuss how predicted compliance to legislated pollution limits varies across regions within Mexico City in 2017. We find that predicted probability of pollution emergencies is limited to a few time periods. By contrast, we show that predicted exceedance of federal Mexican ambient air quality standards is a common, nearly daily occurrence.

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

The authors declare that an ethics committee vote is not required.