Article
The association between extreme temperature and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in elderly German women
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Authors
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Kerolus Tadrous
- Leibniz-Institut für umweltmedizinische Forschung, Düssedorf, Germany
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Nidhi Singh
- IUF – Leibniz-Institut für umweltmedizinische Forschung GmbH, Düsseldorf, Germany
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Claudia Wigmann
- IUF – Leibniz-Institut für umweltmedizinische Forschung GmbH, Düssedorf, Germany
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Christian Herder
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany
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Tamara Schikowski
- IUF - Leibniz Institute for Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| Published: | September 6, 2024 |
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Outline
Text
Climate change has become a growing public health concern in recent years, resulting in substantial swings in extreme ambient temperatures that have significant impacts on morbidity and mortality [1]. Researchers are increasingly focusing on heat-related mortality globally, with estimates suggesting a rising trend surpassing cold-related mortality [2]. However, understanding temperature-related mortality remains limited due to variations in study approaches and population characteristics [3], [4], [5]. The current study investigates the association between extreme temperature and all-cause mortality, as well as cause-specific mortality, within a cohort of elderly German women. We used a case-crossover study design with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) up to 5-day lags to account for both immediate and delayed effects of temperature. The DLNM was adjusted for time-invariant confounders, such as age, BMI, smoking history or passive smoking, socioeconomic status, and residential setting (urban or rural), enabling the examination of short-term temperature impacts. We obtained our data from the SALIA cohort study, which comprised 4874 female participants from Germany, with an average age of 67.3 (SD: 5.9) years at the time of death (n=718). The results reveal a significant delayed effect of extreme temperature on all-cause mortality, evident in extremely cold temperatures (-14°C, 5th percentile) and hot temperatures (26°C, 95th percentile), with a significant increase in the odds ratio (OR) above 1 starting at lag 4. However, no statistically significant associations were observed for cause-specific mortality related to cardiorespiratory disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), or ischemic heart disease (IHD). Cohort studies, while resource-intensive and time-consuming, play a crucial role in illuminating temperature-mortality relationships and informing preventive strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with extreme temperatures. Nevertheless, further research is needed to understand the complex interactions between temperature and health outcomes while considering various individual factors
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
The authors declare that a positive ethics committee vote has been obtained.
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