gms | German Medical Science

Background: Reactive horizon scans often have a short timescale for delivery to meet stakeholder needs for timely information. There is a well-developed literature, including guidance, on rapid evidence synthesis including systematic reviews. In horizon scanning no such literature exists.

Methods: We are developing a process for conducting rapid horizon scans based on principles of rapid evidence synthesis, including stakeholder consultation to determine scope. We define rapid horizon scans as being completed in three weeks or less.

Communication with stakeholders is supported by a dedicated email account and stakeholder relationship manager. Horizon scans, like evidence syntheses, involve trade-offs between breadth of scope, depth of scope, methodological rigour, and speed. Making these explicit is key to transparent and collaborative working relationships with stakeholders.

Scoping by an information specialist identifies potential trade-offs between numbers of sources, types of sources, clinical breadth, methodological breadth, and feasibility of delivery to deadline. Clear communication of these trade-offs enables development of a plan that meets stakeholder needs across all domains (data sources, scope, timeliness).

Plans specify the following elements for inclusion criteria: Horizon(s) of interest (Emerging/Transitional/Imminent), Intervention(s), Population(s), Data type(s) (e.g. trials, funding, patents, published literature) and specified sources and limits such as date cut-offs, trial phases or trial/funding locations. This “HIPD” approach to specifying inclusion criteria is analogous to the PICOS/PCC approaches used in evidence synthesis. Plans also specify types of information to be reported from each record.

Methods include adaptations to increase rapidity and AI tools for prioritisation (enabling broader approaches to searching without increased resources). Implications of these are explained to stakeholders.

Results: We have delivered several rapid horizon scans to stakeholders including NIHR and DHSC, who gave positive feedback. We continue to develop processes including methods for supporting multiple concurrent requests and incorporating feedback to achieve continual improvement.

Conclusion: Rapid horizon scans which meet stakeholder need are supported by early exploration of trade-offs between scope (defined using “HIPD”), rigour and timeliness. Future development of tools will enhance capacity to deliver within rapid timelines. Continued work with stakeholders will support further development of rapid scoping and consultation capabilities, including adaptations for non-standard data sources.

Funding statement: This work is funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) [NIHRIO/project reference HSRIC-2016-10009]. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The authors declare no conflict of interest.