gms | German Medical Science

The future of aged care is expected to undergo significant changes, vastly different from the systems and experiences of today. This study explores potential future scenarios for elderly care in Iran, utilizing an intuitive logic scenario approach. The research was conducted in three key phases:

• Identifying key drivers through an extensive literature review and interviews with experts.
• Selecting key uncertainties using the Delphi method over two rounds of consensus-building.
• Developing future scenarios through a participatory workshop.

Through this process, 34 critical factors were identified as having the most significant influence on the future of aged care. These factors were categorized into four domains: social, economic, technological, and environmental.

From the Delphi method, two key uncertainties were prioritized, and based on these, four distinct future scenarios were developed. These scenarios offer valuable insights into how aged care in Iran could evolve, helping policymakers and stakeholders anticipate challenges and opportunities. The study highlights the importance of forward-thinking policy, the integration of technology, and adaptive strategies in ensuring a more resilient and responsive aged care system for the future.

According to our findings, the current aged care system in Iran falls short of meeting the comprehensive needs of its elderly population. The system is fragmented and lacks the integration of essential services such as preventive care, mental health support, and long-term rehabilitation. To address these gaps, a fundamental redesign is required, incorporating holistic care models that emphasize not only physical health but also emotional, social, and cognitive well-being.

Efficacious interventions and innovative care solutions can be implemented by leveraging the study’s findings. This would involve a shift towards more personalized and community-based care, increased access to healthcare services, and better training for care providers. Policymakers in the field of aging must adopt a multi-dimensional approach that includes social support systems, family involvement, and the integration of technology to improve monitoring and care coordination. By translating these findings into concrete actions, Iran’s aged care system could significantly enhance the quality of life for elder adults and reduce the burden on the healthcare infrastructure.