gms | German Medical Science

Background/research question: According to the 2022 Europe Report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, in the last decade the exposure to heat waves in Europe increased by 57% on average and in some regions even by 250% compared to the period 2000–2009 [1]. In addition to direct health impacts such as increased morbidity and mortality due to heat-stress exposure and associated economic implications for the society, other indirect economic consequences such as productivity losses because of heat-stress related reduced labor capacity can be expected.

In the EU Horizon Europe project CATALYSE – Climate Action To Advance Healthy Societies in Europe, we aim to develop a framework for climate change adaptation strategies and to assess the health-economic impact of selected adaptation measures in the health sector, for example, protecting workers from heat-related illnesses.

Methods: Using an evidence-based decision-analytic modelling approach, we evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of selected climate change adaptation strategies to protect workers from heat-related illness. Our analyses will provide clinical and health-related economic evidence including costs of no action, costs of measures to reduce heat-related occupational illness, and health economic evaluation to compare the long-term costs and benefits of alternative adaptation actions. Specific adaptation strategies and health damage components related to occupational heat stress exposure will be systematically derived from the literature. Our analysis will cover occupationally exposed populations representative of Europe. We will develop a Markov health state-transition model using a cohort simulation to estimate full and incremental health costs including direct inpatient and outpatient healthcare costs as well as costs due to health-related productivity losses. All costs will be derived from country-specific sources in Euro. Deterministic analyses will be conducted over a lifelong time horizon. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses will be performed to assess uncertainty.

Preliminary/expected results, outlook: Our results will provide evidence on health-related benefits, risks and costs of alternative adaptation measures reducing heat-related occupational illness in selected European populations to inform decision makers responsible for budgetary and resource allocation (e.g., health ministries, sickness funds, private sector) and to enhance resilience to climate change in the health sector.

Competing interests: This work is funded by the European Commission Horizon Europe Grant CATALYSE (GA-101057131).