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Is it possible to predict the development of gender-specific premature mortality for Germany by 2030?
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Veröffentlicht: | 26. Februar 2021 |
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Background: Germany has set itself the goal of reducing the premature mortality of 1-69-year-old men to 190/100,000 and of women to 100/100,000 women (age standardised) by 2030. This is intended to simultaneously increase the life expectancy of men and women.
Methods: For the years 2010 to 2017, the premature mortality of 0-69 year old men and women will be calculated and standardised to the European population. The results are extrapolated as a linear function and compared with the SDG's targets for 2030.
Results: The target for GE is to reduce premature mortality by 34% in men from 288/100,000 in 2015. For women, the value is also to be reduced by 34% from 153/100,000. According to the trend of the years 2010 to 2017, the target value cannot be achieved by 2030, the difference between men and women remains. There will be a hardly noticeable reduction of the difference in life expectancy from the current 4.82 years.
Conclusion: The target for 2030 can only be achieved with action plans. WHO Europe proposes 5 priorities to reduce premature mortality from chronic diseases and accidents:
- 1.
- nore policy governance,
- 2.
- gender equality,
- 3.
- more gender-sensitive health systems,
- 4.
- better health promotion,
- 5.
- building a solid evidence base.
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
The authors declare that an ethics committee vote is not required.
References
- 1.
- Federal Statistical Office / Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). Nachhaltige Entwicklung in Deutschland, Indikatorenbericht 2018. [Sustainable Development in Germany, Indicator Report 2018]. 2018.
- 2.
- WHO Regional Office for Europe. The heath and well-being of men in the WHO European Region. Strategy and Resolution. 2018. ISBN 978 92 8905 3532.