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GMDS 2015: 60. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie e. V. (GMDS)

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie

06.09. - 09.09.2015, Krefeld

Implications from under-reporting at lifetime, death certificate notifications and trace back on the recorded incidence of a “newly” established population-based cancer registry

Meeting Abstract

Suche in Medline nach

  • Bernd Holleczek - Epidemiologisches Krebsregister Saarland, Saarbrücken, Deutschland
  • Hermann Brenner - Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Deutschland

GMDS 2015. 60. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie e.V. (GMDS). Krefeld, 06.-09.09.2015. Düsseldorf: German Medical Science GMS Publishing House; 2015. DocAbstr. 071

doi: 10.3205/15gmds175, urn:nbn:de:0183-15gmds1751

Veröffentlicht: 27. August 2015

© 2015 Holleczek et al.
Dieser Artikel ist ein Open-Access-Artikel und steht unter den Lizenzbedingungen der Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (Namensnennung). Lizenz-Angaben siehe http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.


Gliederung

Text

Introduction: Population-based cancer registries are important tools for measuring cancer burden and progress in cancer control. Aim of the study was to investigate the effects of under-reporting at lifetime, death certificate notifications, and trace-back on the incidence a newly established population-based cancer registry (CR) may record during its initial 15 years after the start of registration.

Methods: Using cancer data of 9 CRs participating in the SEER programme we performed model calculations to investigate temporal trends of the recorded incidence that might be expected if registration started in 1995 with gradually increasing proportions of cancers reported at lifetime. It was assumed that the CR obtains a death certificate of each cancer death. Different scenarios with regard to the development of the proportions of cancers reported at lifetime and trace back of cases notified by death certificate only were evaluated.

Results: Our model calculations demonstrated that the inclusion of prevalent cancers that had been diagnosed prior to the start of registration from death certificate notifications may compensate under-reporting typically observed right after the start of a CR. The recorded incidence may even be overestimated during the first years of registration, if large amounts of prevalent cancers are notified from death certificates (e.g. overestimation of lung cancer incidence by 8% and 21% in the first year of registration, if the proportions of cases reported at lifetime were 50% and 70% in that year, overestimation of myeloma incidence still exceeding 5% after eight years of registration, if the proportion of cases reported at lifetime had reached 97.5% after six years). Trace back activities may effectively reduce the recorded surplus cancer cases.

Discussion: The study may provide valuable insights in how strongly different factors affecting data collection and case ascertainment may individually and jointly affect the recorded incidence a newly established CRs may report during the initial 15 years of registration. As data of population-based CRs are regularly used for publications presenting cancer data even for the initial years after registration, we feel the results may help to enhance valid interpretation of recorded incidence reported in the initial 15 years of a population-based CR.