gms | German Medical Science

Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Medizinische Ausbildung (GMA)

05.10. - 08.10.2011, München

Prediction of study performance by the different parts of the Graz admission test for medical studies


Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Medizinische Ausbildung (GMA). München, 05.-08.10.2011. Düsseldorf: German Medical Science GMS Publishing House; 2011. Doc11gma088

doi: 10.3205/11gma088, urn:nbn:de:0183-11gma0888

Veröffentlicht: 26. September 2011

© 2011 Reibnegger et al.
Dieser Artikel ist ein Open Access-Artikel und steht unter den Creative Commons Lizenzbedingungen ( Er darf vervielfältigt, verbreitet und öffentlich zugänglich gemacht werden, vorausgesetzt dass Autor und Quelle genannt werden.



Question: The Medical University of Graz has developed an own admission test for medical studies which consists of a knowledge test on secondary school level (biology, chemistry, mathematics and physics) and a text comprehension test. Compared with open admission, admission testing resulted in dramatic improvement of study success rate [1] as well as a marked reduction of study dropout rate [2]. The present investigation inquires into the differential predictive abilities of the various test parts (science disciplines as well as text comprehension) regarding the time needed to complete the first part of study (equivalent to the first study year) as well as the average study performance of students during this part of study.

Methods: Survival analysis techniques (Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox regression) were employed to explore the prognostic significance of test parts on time needed to complete the first part of study. Correlation with test achievements and study performance were analysed by classical regression and correlation techniques.

Results: The different parts of the admission test showed different predictive significances for time needed to finish the first part of study as well as for study performance. Interestingly, particularly test results achieved in chemistry and physics consistently showed the best predictive value. Weakest correlation with the time variable investigated as well as with study performance was found for the text comprehension part of the admission test.

Conclusion: In addition to previous studies, the detailed analysis of the different test parts showed differential predictive importance,“hard core” science subjects chemistry and physics being the best predictors. Importantly, as only successful participants of the admission tests, i.e., the best performing fraction of all applicants, could be analysed for this study, the highly significant power of certain test parts in predicting study times and study performance is surprising and supports further usage of this kind of admission test.


Reibnegger G, Caluba HC, Ithaler D, Manhal S, Neges H, Smolle J. Progress of medical students after open admission or admission based on knowledge tests. Med Educ. 2010;44(2):205-214. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2923.2009.03576.x Externer Link
Reibnegger G, Caluba HC, Ithaler D, Manhal S, Neges H, Smolle J. Dropout rates in medical students at one school before and after the installation of admission tests in Austria. Acad Med. 2011. [Epub ahead of print].