Artikel
Plastic Surgery – Quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States of America
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Autoren
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P. Niclas Broer
- München, Deutschland
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Sabrina Juran
- Bevölkerungsfonds der Vereinten Nationen (UNFPA), Technische Abteilung, Daten und Forschung, New York, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika
| Veröffentlicht: | 3. September 2014 |
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Gliederung
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Goals/Purpose: While prone to economic fluctuations, aesthetic plastic surgery has witnessed an overall steady growth over the past decades. The objective of this paper was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic surgeries in the United States of America and to project future changes regarding such procedures. The results aim to alert the medical community about these trends, in order to plan and prepare in advance.
Methods/Technique: Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age and ethnic group. Then, utilizing the national population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and non-occurrence of a recession of similar degree to the crisis that set in in 2007.
Results/Complications: Based on past trends in procedures and taking into account the changing age- and ethnic structure of the U.S. population, in the absence of another severe recession, aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth percentage rate of 7.1% (Figure 1 [Fig. 1]). Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would only increase to 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3% (Figure 1 [Fig. 2]). Since the age distribution of the patient population will change (Figure 2 [Fig. 2]), preferences for specific procedures according to age influence, and thus are reflected in, future demand for those procedures. Further, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32% of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030.
Conclusion: Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be 1. breast augmentations, 2. lipoplasties and 3. blepharoplasties.
