Artikel
The projected numbers of degenerative spine disease in Austria from 2017 to 2080: a perspective-based scenario analysis
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Autoren
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Alexander Romagna
- Universitätsklinkum Salzburg, Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversität, Universitätsklinik für Neurochirurgie, Salzburg, Österreich
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Peter A. Winkler
- Universitätsklinkum Salzburg, Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversität, Universitätsklinik für Neurochirurgie, Salzburg, Österreich
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Wolfgang Hitzl
- Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversität, Biostatistik, Forschungsbüro, Salzburg, Österreich
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Christoph Schwartz
- Universitätsklinkum Salzburg, Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversität, Universitätsklinik für Neurochirurgie, Salzburg, Österreich
| Veröffentlicht: | 18. Juni 2018 |
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Gliederung
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Objective: Current numbers on demographic information from Austria as well as population projections for 2017-2080 were obtained from Statistics Austria (STAT). To provide reasonable lower and upper bounds for the projections, three scenarios were used: a lower/main/upper scenario reflecting low/main/high growth and ageing scenarios deducted from fertility, life expectancy and immigration calculations. Information on prevalence of surgically treated DSD was obtained from the Austrian Spine Register. All estimations and projections are given for low, main and high scenarios and were stratified to age and sex.
Methods: The population in Austria (evaluated in 2017) was 8.78 Mio and was estimated to increase to 7.86/10.0/13.1 Mio according to the mentioned scenarios in 2080. The total number of surgically treated DSD was 9300 and was estimated to be 9300/11200/13700 in 2080. The number of subjects with DSD were expected to increase in the age-strata (main scenario), 100% corresponds to the number in each age and gender stratum: 0-40 yrs by (male/female) 2%/2%, 40-50yrs -7%/-7%, 50-59yrs -11%/-9%, 60-69yrs 21%/16%, 70-79yrs 51%/31%, 80-89yrs 211%/129% and 90+yrs 698%/411%.
Results: According to the projected numbers the prevalence for DSD in Austria will increase from 2017 to 2080 by at least 19%. The relative increase in the number of subjects with DSD is greater in men than in women due to population shifts. In those aged 80+ the number of subjects with DSD will increase from 528 in 2017 to 1396 and in those aged 90+ from 24 to 140 which corresponds to an increase of 164% and 490%, respectively. As the assumptions of this analysis are in general conservatively taken (assuming constant DSD prevalences and a constant level of DSD related costs per patient during the projected time), the future socio-economic burden to society might be greater as projected by the study. The presented analysis might provide a basis upon which projected data from other countries can be compared.
Conclusion: Spinal surgery has to address the challenge of dramatic increase of older patients ("population greying"). The purpose of the present study was to project the numbers of surgically treated degenerative spine disease (DSD) together with associated costs in Austria from 2017 to 2080 in order to provide potential scenarios that the Austrian Health system might face in the future.
