gms | German Medical Science

20. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Pädiatrische Infektiologie (DGPI)

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Pädiatrische Infektiologie (DGPI)

19.04. - 21.04.2012, Mannheim

Challenges for transmission models in pediatric infectious disease

Meeting Abstract

  • presenting/speaker Martina Prelog - Universitätskinderklinik Würzburg, Würzburg
  • Stephan Boese-O'Reilly - Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT, Hall in Tirol
  • Beate Jahn - Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT, Hall in Tirol
  • Uwe Siebert - Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT, Hall in Tirol

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Pädiatrische Infektiologie. 20. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Pädiatrische Infektiologie (DGPI). Mannheim, 19.-21.04.2012. Düsseldorf: German Medical Science GMS Publishing House; 2012. Doc12dgpi11

DOI: 10.3205/12dgpi11, URN: urn:nbn:de:0183-12dgpi112

Published: March 22, 2012

© 2012 Prelog et al.
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Outline

Text

Management of infectious disease transmission is a challenge for physicians and public health policies. Most infectious disease transmission models do not appropriately represent the specific issues of pediatric target populations.

Thus, in the following project, advantages and disadvantages of stochastic and deterministic infectious disease transmission models and the challenges of modeling pediatric infectious disease transmission were analyzed by systematic literature research.

Classical models for infectious transmission systems are the SI, SIS, SIR and SIRS, which are defined by the state (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovery) of the individuals and transition probabilities. The most important variable is the basic reproduction ratio R0 which is defined as the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual in a totally susceptible population. However, several aspects of infectious disease transmission known from adult populations may have a different significance in pediatric populations. In modeling pediatric infectious diseases, researches are faced with complicating issues, such as heterogeneity of transmission, sub-communities, eradication models of childhood disease, latent or chronic infections with variable infectious state and carrier infectiousness, unreported or undiagnosed cases and vertically and horizontally transmitted infections.

Most studies suggest selecting the simplest model that addresses the objectives of the study, the disease structure, the transmission aspects and the management and treatment process. This analysis of specific problems in modeling infectious disease transmission in the pediatric population teaches us, that the nature of the pathogen and of the disease have to be carefully studied before an appropriate model type and structure can be chosen, which considers the peculiarity of infectious diseases in children.