gms | German Medical Science

14. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Arzneimittelanwendungsforschung und Arzneimittelepidemiologie

Gesellschaft für Arzneimittelforschung und Arzneimittelepidemiologie

15.11. - 16.11.2007, Frankfurt am Main

Simulation of the short and long term health and economic impact of a quadrivalent HPV (6,11,16,18) vaccine in Germany

Meeting Abstract

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  • corresponding author K. Büsch - Sanofi Pasteur MSD, Leimen, Germany
  • N. Largeron - Sanofi Pasteur MSD, Lyon, France

Gesellschaft für Arzneimittelanwendungsforschung und Arzneimittelepidemiologie e.V. (GAA). 14. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Arzneimittelanwendungsforschung und Arzneimittelepidemiologie. Frankfurt am Main, 15.-16.11.2007. Düsseldorf: German Medical Science GMS Publishing House; 2007. Doc07gaa20

The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at:

Published: November 12, 2007

© 2007 Büsch et al.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( You are free: to Share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work, provided the original author and source are credited.



Context: Human papillomavirus types 6, 11, 16, 18 are responsible for the vast majority of genital papillomavirus diseases; such as cervical cancer (CC), precursor lesions (CIN2/3) and genital warts. A quadrivalent prophylactic HPV (6, 11, 16, 18) vaccine was recently recommended in Germany.

Aim of the study: To assess the short and long term health and economic impact of this vaccine in Germany.

Material and method: A budget impact model was developed. The annual number and the treatment costs of genital warts, CIN and CC were obtained from 3 German studies and from literature. The annual impact of the vaccine on the disease is based on the results of a published US mathematical dynamic transmission model. Routine vaccination of females prior to age 12 years with a 70% coverage rate associated with a temporary catch-up programme in females aged 12-24 years was considered.

Results: 6,500 CC, 57,837 CIN and 73,790 genital warts occur annually in Germany, leading to total direct cost of 170 million €. In the long term, the total number of cases and cost due to types 6, 11, 16, 18 will be decreased by 73% and 76%, respectively.

The catch-up programme accelerates the benefits of vaccination, thereby providing an additional reduction of 11,313 CC on top of the 3,376 cases avoided with routine vaccination in the first 20 years after vaccine implementation. During the first 5 years after vaccine introduction, prevention of HPV 6/11-related diseases contributes by 77% to the overall savings from avoided HPV disease.

Conclusions: This analysis utilises German epidemiology data and US figures to provide an estimate of the potential short and long term impact of HPV vaccination in Germany. An important additional finding is that HPV types 6 and 11 being targeted by the quadrivalent vaccine deliver an important clinical and budgetary benefit that is realised very early after start of the vaccination programme.